China’s Expanding Nuclear and Missile Arsenal Detailed
A recent report to Congress, titled “Report to Congress on China’s Nuclear and Missile Proliferation,” and published by USNI News, sheds new light on the extent and trajectory of China’s expanding strategic weapons development. The document underscores growing concern within the U.S. defense and intelligence communities about Beijing’s accelerating advancements in both nuclear warheads and long-range missile technology, illustrating what some experts now interpret as a shift in China’s strategic doctrine.
The report, compiled against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical competition and rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, confirms that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is not only modernizing but also significantly enlarging its nuclear arsenal. According to U.S. defense estimates cited in the report, China is on track to possess more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030—more than triple its current stockpile.
This shift marks a departure from China’s historically minimalist approach to nuclear deterrence, prompting analysts to question whether Beijing is moving toward a more aggressive nuclear posture. The report outlines China’s continued development of road- and rail-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and hypersonic glide vehicles, all of which enhance the survivability and first-strike capabilities of its strategic forces.
Furthermore, the document highlights China’s role in contributing to the proliferation of missile technologies beyond its borders, including transfers to countries of concern. Despite being a member of international nonproliferation frameworks, such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and having pledged adherence to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), the PRC has reportedly failed to adequately enforce export controls and has not been transparent in reporting its proliferative activities.
U.S. officials have expressed alarm at the regional and global implications of these trends. “China’s expanding nuclear and missile capabilities not only destabilize regional balances but also undermine global nonproliferation norms,” said a senior congressional aide familiar with the report. The document calls for sustained investment in U.S. nuclear deterrent modernization and maintenance of a credible strategic posture, arguing that deterrence will require both technological readiness and diplomatic engagement.
The report arrives as the Pentagon continues to reorient its strategic priorities around great power competition, particularly in response to the growing capabilities of peer adversaries like China and Russia. While bilateral arms agreements with Russia have historically shaped U.S. nuclear policy, the emergence of a near-peer competitor in China adds new urgency to calls for engaging Beijing in future arms control frameworks.
Yet Beijing has so far resisted such overtures, asserting that its much smaller stockpile does not warrant the same level of constraint as those of the U.S. and Russia. The PRC has also expressed skepticism over Washington’s intentions, framing its nuclear development as a necessary counterbalance to perceived U.S. pressure and containment.
The “Report to Congress on China’s Nuclear and Missile Proliferation,” as published by USNI News, presents a sobering assessment of China’s evolving military capabilities and their implications for global stability. Whether through deterrence, diplomacy, or a recalibration of strategic doctrine, the U.S. faces increasingly complex decisions in responding to the growing sophistication of Chinese weapons systems.
