Looming End of New START Raises Nuclear Arms Fears

As the expiration of the New START treaty looms in 2026, questions of strategic stability and great power competition are intensifying among policymakers and experts in Washington and beyond. According to the article “New START Expires: Will A New US-Russia Nuclear Arms Race Follow?” published by Breaking Defense, the approaching end of the last remaining arms control pact between the United States and Russia is prompting fears of a renewed and potentially destabilizing nuclear arms race.

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), signed in 2010 and extended through 2026, constrains both countries’ strategic nuclear arsenals and includes robust verification mechanisms. With no successor agreement in sight, officials and analysts are sounding the alarm on the absence of legally binding limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals for the first time in decades.

Since the invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent collapse of most diplomatic channels between Washington and Moscow, arms control has largely been relegated to a back burner. Efforts to begin preliminary talks have sputtered, and mutual suspicions have only deepened. Russia suspended its participation in New START in early 2023, although it has signaled it intends to stay within the treaty’s bounds—for now. The article notes that the likelihood of Russia agreeing to a follow-on treaty appears increasingly slim, especially as President Vladimir Putin positions his country in direct opposition to Western interests.

For U.S. defense officials and lawmakers, the expiration of New START could also impact broader strategic dynamics, particularly in the face of China’s growing nuclear arsenal. According to Breaking Defense, any future arms control arrangement will likely have to consider Beijing’s ambitions, complicating efforts to return to the bilateral balance that characterized Cold War-era treaties. The Pentagon has already begun modernizing its nuclear triad—a multibillion-dollar effort to replace aging land-based missiles, submarines, and bomber fleets. Without treaty-imposed limits, the incentives to expand U.S. capabilities further could intensify.

Experts cited in the Breaking Defense report warn of the potential for rapid escalation in a post-New START world, where miscalculation and miscommunication become more dangerous in the absence of verification mechanisms and clear constraints. Some advocate for the U.S. to explore new arms control models that include emerging technologies and third-party actors, while others argue that Washington must be prepared to compete in a less predictable and more adversarial environment.

With less than two years remaining before the treaty expires, the clock is ticking for diplomatic engagement. But with political will faltering and global tensions running high, the prospect of a renewed nuclear arms race is no longer a distant theoretical concern—it is becoming an increasingly tangible risk.